IMF-亚太地区经济展望报告(英)-2023.5-35页.pdf

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ASIA AND PACIFICREGIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOKRecovery Unabated amid Uncertainty2023MAYINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUNDASIA AND PACIFICREGIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOKWorld Economic and Financial SurveysRecovery Unabated amid Uncertainty 2023MAYCopyright 2023 International Monetary FundCataloging-in-Publication DataIMF LibraryNames: International Monetary Fund, publisher.Title: Regional economic outlook. Asia and Pacific : recovery unabated amid uncertainty.Other titles: Asia and Pacific : recovery unabated amid uncertainty. | Recovery unabated amid uncertainty. | World economic and financial surveys. | Regional economic outlook: Asia and Pacific.Description: Washington, DC : International Monetary Fund, 2023. | World economic and financial surveys. | May 2023. | Includes bibliographical references.Identifiers: ISBN:9798400238062 (paper)9798400238093 (epub)9798400238123 (web PDF)Subjects: LCSH: Economic forecastingAsia. | Economic forecastingPacific Area. | AsiaEconomic conditions. | Pacific AreaEconomic conditions. | Economic developmentAsia. | Economic developmentPacific Area.Classification: LCC HC412.R445 2023The Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific is published twice a year, in the spring and fall, to review developments in the Asia and Pacific region. Both projections and policy considerations are those of the IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF Management.Publication orders may be placed online, by fax, or through the mail:International Monetary Fund, Publication ServicesP.O. Box 92780, Washington, DC 20090 (USA)T. +(1) 202.623.7430F. +(1) 202.623.7201publicationsIMF.orgwww.IMFbookstore.orgwww.elibrary.IMF.orgContentsAcknowledgments . vDefinitions . viExecutive Summary . viiOutlook for Asia and Pacific: Recovery Unabashed amid Uncertainty . 1Resilient Growth Despite Multiple Shocks . 1Volatile Financial Conditions and Persistent Core Inflation . 3Outlook: Dynamic Growth and Continuing Inflation Pressures . 4Risks to the Outlook Remain Tilted to the Downside . 8Policies to Mitigate Risks and Support Growth . 10References . 18BOXESBox 1. State-Dependent Exchange Rate Pass-Through . 19Box 2. Corporate Sector Vulnerabilities amid Rising Interest Rates . 21FIGURESFigure 1. Growth Surprises . 1Figure 2. Growth Drivers in Asia in 2022 . 2Figure 3. China Mobility and Retail Sales . 3Figure 4. Financial Conditions . 4Figure 5. Inflation Developments . 5Figure 6. Global Growth Contributions . 6Figure 7. Chinas Reopening . 6Figure 8. Contributions to GDP Growth . 7Figure 9. External Demand and the Global Technology Cycle. 8Figure 10. Headline Inflation Expected to Decline . 9Figure 11. Risk of Stickier Inflation . 9Figure 12. Response of Real GDP and Investment to a US Monetary Policy Shock . 10Figure 13. Exposure to Medium-Term Risks .11Figure 14. Real Interest Rates in Asia . 12Figure 15. Cumulative Change in Short-Term Interest Rates and Taylor RuleImplied Interest Rates . 12Figure 16. Recent Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Implications for Inflation . 13Figure 17. Financial Fragilities in Asia . 14Figure 18. Asia: Cyclically Adjusted Primary Balance . 15Figure 19. Asia: Primary Balances under Different Scenarios . 16Figure 20. Total Electric Vehicle Sales . 17Box Figure 1.1. Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Inflation . 19Box Figure 1.2. Pass-Through Determinants . 20 Box Figure 2.1. Cash and Debt in Vulnerable Firms under Stress Scenarios . 22 TABLESTable 1. Asia Real GDP . 24Contents May 2023 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUNDiiiAcknowledgmentsThis Regional Economic Outlook was prepared by a team led by Shanaka J. Peiris and Alasdair Scott, under the overall direction of Krishna Srinivasan and Thomas Helbling. The main authors are Monica Petrescu and Yizhi Xu. Contributions were provided by Yan Carrire-Swallow, Natasha Che, Alex Copestake, Julia Estefania Flores, Melih Firat, Pablo Gonzalez, Daniel Jimnez, and Chris Redl. Maribel Cherres and Judee Yanzon assisted in the preparation of the report. Cheryl Toksoz of the IMFs Communications Department edited the volume and coordinated its publication and release. Contributors to boxes are Yan Carrire-Swallow, Melih Firat, and Daniel Jimnez for Box 1, and Monica Petrescu for Box 2. The report is based on data available as of March 29, 2023, and includes comments from other IMF departments and executive directors. AcknowledgmentsMay 2023 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUNDvDefinitionsIn this Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific, the following groupings are employed: “ASEAN” refers to Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao P.D.R., Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam, unless otherwise specified. “ASEAN-5” refers to Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand. “Advanced Asia” refers to Australia, Hong Kong SAR, Japan, Korea, New Zealand, Singapore, and Taiwan Province of China. “Emerging Asia” refers to China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietna
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